CMHC's forecast for 2008
Richard Sam was the feature speaker at our office meeting toay. Richard is CMHC's market analyst so he came fully armed with statistics and predictions. With the subprime disaster in the US, I was interested in how Richard thought that would affect our market.
He seemed to think that:
- Eastern Canada with her close knit ties in manufacturing to The States would be more negatively affected than Western Canada.
- our market would increase slightly predicting that mortgage rates especially variable mortgages will soften as much as 3/4 of a percent.
- the 2010 Winter Olympics would help bouy up Vancouver prices.
Richard's statistics showed that with the smaller family units (average family size of 2.6 people) that there is a shift from single family homes to young families choosing town homes and apartments over the suburban home with the big yard. This new generation prefers to live, work and play close to home. So for them 800 square feet is sufficient. With 35% of our market downsizing, i.e.: selling the big home and retiring AND 37% being 1st time home owners, the future will have greater demand on the multifamily sector.
It will be interesting how this"smaller is better" philosophy will affect our neighborhoods.